
Indian media networks have accessed and reported on official dossiers compiled by India detailing Pakistan’s involvement in cross-border terrorism, notably following major incidents like the Pulwama and Pahalgam attacks. Ministry of External Affairs. [印度媒体获取并报道了由印度方面汇编的官方档案,详细记录了巴基斯坦参与跨境恐怖主义活动的情况,特别是在普尔瓦马(Pulwama)和帕哈尔加姆(Pahalgam)袭击等重大事件之后。印度外交部]
Key Details of Indian Dossiers
Evidence Shared: The dossiers contain actionable proof, including audio and video recordings, details of terrorist training camps, intercepted communications, and specifics on groups like Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM). Diplomatic Impact: India has historically used these dossiers to brief the international community, pressure Pakistan diplomatically, and push for global counter-terrorism actions through bodies like the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). [已分享的证据:这些档案包含了可据以采取行动的证据,其中包括音视频资料、恐怖分子训练营的详情、截获的通讯信息,以及关于“穆罕默德军”(JeM)等组织的具体情报。外交影响:印度历来利用这些档案向国际社会通报情况,在外交上向巴基斯坦施压,并通过金融行动特别工作组(FATF)等机构推动全球反恐行动]
Previous Instances: Prominent dossiers were handed over or leaked to the public following major attacks, such as the 2008 Mumbai attacks and the 2019 Pulwama bombing, outlining explicit links to safe havens within Pakistan. Ministry of External Affairs。 [过往案例:在2008年孟买袭击和2019年普尔瓦马爆炸案等重大袭击事件发生后,相关方面向公众移交或披露了重要案情资料,明确指出了袭击者与巴基斯坦境内“安全避风港”之间的关联。——印度外交部].
Analysis [分析]:
After the Pahalgam attack, India had renewed its military doctrine which no longer distinguished between the state of Pakistan and Terrorist organizations operating from Pakistan. The Modi administration has publicly declared that it would pursue the policy of “deterrence through punishment”. In this regard India has not yet ended operation Sindhoor and only put it in pause mode. Terrorism against India from Pakistan is part Pakistan’s military strategy and shown a decline since the beginning of Modi administration in 2014. In the meanwhile, is rapidly building its military capability to conduct “no contact warfare” with Pakistan. [帕哈尔加姆(Pahalgam)袭击事件发生后,印度修订了其军事准则,不再区分巴基斯坦国家与在巴基斯坦境内活动的恐怖组织。莫迪政府已公开宣布将奉行“通过惩罚实现威慑”的政策。在此背景下,印度尚未终止“辛杜尔”(Sindhoor)行动,仅将其暂时搁置。源自巴基斯坦、针对印度的恐怖主义活动是巴基斯坦军事战略的一部分,但自2014年莫迪政府上台以来,此类活动已呈下降趋势。与此同时,印度正迅速增强军事能力,以期对巴基斯坦实施“非接触式战争”。]
India’s doctrine remains less credible with regard to decision making. Since Indian government has already declared that it would react to any misadventure by Pakistan through terrorist organization, Pakistan’s leadership has already asked its citizens to be beware a false flag operation by India on its own soil only to use force against Pakistan. Yet, India’s overall approach towards terrorist attack has undergone transformation since 2014. India has and will violate Pakistan’s sovereignty to avenge a terrorist attack. What kind of terrorist attack will trigger India’s doctrine remains unclear. [在决策层面,印度的相关战略方针仍缺乏足够的公信力。鉴于印度政府已明确表示将针对巴基斯坦利用恐怖组织发起的任何挑衅行为采取反制措施,巴基斯坦领导层已提醒国民警惕印度可能在本土策划“假旗行动”,以此为借口对巴动武。然而,自2014年以来,印度应对恐怖袭击的总体策略已发生转变;印度既往有过、且未来仍可能侵犯巴基斯坦主权以报复恐怖袭击。至于何种性质的恐怖袭击会触发印度的这一战略方针,目前尚不明确。]
India’s demonstration of long-distance precision strike, is a historical development. With the capability of striking anything and everything within Pakistani territory, India has solved a major military problem, yet there is unintended consequence – reinforcing the need for terrorism, for Pakistan’s military strategy. Given the internal situation of Pakistan which is turning grimmer and grimmer (for example the situation with the death rumor of Imran Khan), and in this situation a threat of India to Pakistan’s national security is the only factor that can defend the Pakistan military’s political power. Recently, the Saudi Arabia, Iran and Pakistan signed a mutual defense treaty. [印度展示其远程精确打击能力,标志着事态发展进入了一个历史性阶段。尽管印度已具备打击巴基斯坦境内任何目标的能力,从而解决了一个重大的军事难题,但这同时也带来了一个意想不到的后果:即进一步强化了巴基斯坦军事战略中对恐怖主义手段的依赖。鉴于巴基斯坦国内局势日益严峻(例如关于伊姆兰·汗死讯的传闻),来自印度的国家安全威胁已成为维护巴基斯坦军方政治权力的唯一关键因素。近期,沙特阿拉伯、伊朗和巴基斯坦签署了一项共同防御条约。]
The situation between Pakistan and India is prone to conflict. In India, it is a general expectation that armed conflict will necessarily occur. India is military ready, and this is being repeatedly mentioned by the Indian leadership. [印巴局势极易引发冲突。在印度,普遍预期武装冲突不可避免。印度已做好军事准备,印方领导人也反复提及这一点。]
India is at the cusp of an economic rise and international situation has already turned unfavorable. Sluggish world economy, trade wars, supply chain disruptions coupled with growing concerns for youth employment and growing aspiration of young people has become a political challenge. In this situation, terrorism is a unwelcome guest and will call for India to take necessary military steps. Hence, in the given situation use of military power favour their overall situation. [印度正处于经济崛起的关键时刻,但国际局势已变得不利。全球经济低迷、贸易战、供应链中断,叠加年轻人对就业的日益关切及其不断高涨的期望,已演变成一项政治挑战。在此背景下,恐怖主义这一“不速之客”的出现,将迫使印度采取必要的军事行动。因此,鉴于当前形势,动用军事力量将有利于印度的整体局势。]
Hence, the public declaration of a large terror module by the Home Minister and the technical document to prove Pakistan’s direct involvement strengthens India’s position with respect to use direct military force against Pakistan. [因此,内政部长公开宣布存在一个大型恐怖主义团伙,加上证实巴基斯坦直接涉案的技术文件,增强了印度在考虑对巴基斯坦动用直接军事力量时的立场。]
