Indian Foreign Policy: A Failure?

The US has imposed a 25% tariff on India – a low-income country. Critics argue that India has not managed Trump’s foreign policy wisely, and is struggling in the current geopolitical turmoil in the world.

• India recently conducted its military operations against terror camps in Pakistan, and was caught between the two great powers interest in the region – the US and China.
• A major debate in Parliament discussed the operation Sindhoor and the actions taken by the government during the course of these operations, its foreign policy and implications of India’s decision. During this debate, China and its role was an important theme of debate, along with the US.
• The bilateral relations with the US are important in its bilateral relations with China, for India. India will need to balance these bilateral relations for maximizing its national interest, but of all the choices available India is choosing a difficult option. And this is now gaining strength in India, a radical approach to reignite the Indian nation – a no mean task at hand.

With President Trump making unprecedented negative remarks on India (calling Indian economy a dead economy), Prime Minister’s initial response was to communicate with the people of India and convey to them the need to be conscious with their economic choices. He urged the people to buy things that have been made on the Indian soil by Indian workers.

India is taking an aggressive posture and attempting to maximize its position as the soon to be third largest economy, large consumer base, fastest growing economy and other advantages India has as the largest population in the world. According to Retired Ambassador Bhadra Kumar, although it is not satisfactory, India’s rise is now significant and with-it India has some influence in international affairs. Yet, India’s situation in economic terms is not all that great and has all the problems associated with a developing economy and lacks any significant economic leverage against China or the US. India will have to deepen economic ties with China, if the US tariff war continues and a trade deal that is satisfactory to both does not materialize. According to President of Observers Research Foundation (New Delhi), India is unlikely to become a 10 trillion $ economy without economic partnership with China.

China and Operation Sindhoor: Debates in Parliament

• The opposition challenged the Government’s narrative on the ceasefire and miscommunication on the ongoing nature of the military operations. The role claimed by President Trump in manifesting a ceasefire and no explicit denial by the Indian government was discussed. The opposition party (DMK, Tamil Nadu) criticized the government for intelligence failure during operation Sindhoor.
•  The government has claimed success in the ongoing military operations, including the elimination of the three terrorists involved the terror attack (Operation Mahadev). Yet, according to many observers India may have lost the war on narratives.
• Appointment of Pakistan as the Vice Chairman of the UN committee on terrorism, invitation of Field Marshal Asif Munir to Washington, IMF loan grant to Pakistan, and China’s direct help to Pakistan were cited as reasons for India’s failure.
• To both defend itself and also frame the situation in historical terms, the Indian government has placed this situation as a process of history. India’s foreign minister has categorically stated that, the military alliance between China and Pakistan resulted from the fact that India did not take back – Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK), and Pakistan’s illegal transfer of the Shaksgam Valley to China. The minister argued that China-Pakistan military alliance is not a new phenomenon and has been in making since the 1960’s, and this included nuclear assistance in 1976.
• The members from the ruling BJP and opposition parties led by a weak Congress party engaged in a blame game over China. The present Indian government is now fiercely building a narrative that the Congress Party made a blunder with respect to its China policy and the current situation results from the mistakes India made in the past. In this regard, the government is creating a space to introduce corrective policy to deal with the situation. Following operation Sindhoor, India has introduced a shift in its Tibet policy.
• The present government further criticized the Congress Party for building strategic partnership with China, have track two secret diplomacies, framing slogans like Chindia, not preparing the border infrastructure etc. During Galwan crisis, the case of Rahul Gandhi holding meeting with China’s ambassador was mentioned by Foreign Minister.
• There will be more answering for the government to do in coming days and months regarding its conduct. Perhaps the government has a better situational awareness than the opposition party, as some measures need to be taken for government to declare operation Sindhoor as complete and successful.
• Coinciding with India’s Independence Day – as per its democratic traditions senior political and military leadership presented their official view on operation Sindhoor. All three service chief and Chief of Defense Staff (CDS) made public presentations. According to CDS, India during Operation Sindhoor had a decisive advantage in advanced technology which enabled it to strike targets well within Pakistan with very high precision, but warned that India will have to make an effort to keep this balance in its favour in the future. Some top military leaders, unequivocally linked China and Pakistan during operation Sindhoor.
• According to National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, India’s war on narrative will include all citizens in future phases of operation Sindhoor. He further discredited all efforts made by foreign media regarding operation Sindhoor and asked if even a window pane was successfully destroyed by Pakistan.
• According to Air Force Chief, India shot down five fighter jets and one aircraft (possible bigger aircraft). This bigger aircraft was possibly an AWACS plane and was shot at distance more than 300 Km, this is a world record.
• By and large in their communication with the people of India, the operation Sindhoor was classified as a success from a military operational perspective. The Army Chief has also warned that this operation will continue, as India remains prepared to use punishment as a doctrine in the future.
• The India Prime Minister has made the result of operation Sindhoor very clear during his speech on the eve of Independence Day – India no longer follows a policy of distinguishing the State of Pakistan and Terrorism emanating from its soil. India believes terrorists in Pakistan are integral to the Battle order. Hence India will follow the doctrine of “Deterrence by Punishment”. This is major shift in India’s military doctrine and the entire military leadership has set to prepare the nation under the “whole of nation approach” to fight modern wars which are hi-tech and limited, yet remain prepared for a long drawn-out war. India’s strategy and policy (foreign and domestic) is gearing up to this development.
• Strategist have moved on from a two-front war scenario (China-Pakistan) to a 3.5 front war scenario (China, Bangladesh, and Pakistan & domestic unrest).
• Mistrust for China in the strategic domain prevails, yet India has limited choices to address the growing influence of China in the region. India’ expects further Chinese support for Pakistan military and boundary related military issues in the future.

India US Relations

• According to Sanjay Baru (former media adviser to PM Manmohan Singh) – PM Modi is to blame for mishandling Trump’s ego and provoking tariffs: Pakistan on the other hand has done a better job. This has been the case with many, UK, Japan, EU and China where each has made some concession, for example in China’s case it was its position in export of rare earth minerals. India does not any such leverage in particular.
• The US has pursued a policy aimed at ‘strategic stability’ with China, and improved relations with Pakistan. This is seen as a failure of foreign policy.
• India had very little to lose by accepting US intervention in the ceasefire during operation Sindhoor. There is clash of ego between Trump and Modi.
• India banks on the rivalry between the US and China, and a situation moving towards stability between the US and China will create a policy issue for India. Many in India believe that in the present situation India is in a gold spot, but many disagree. India is gearing up to create a third path and thereby avoid falling into China and US camps. India’s foreign policy choices are not in tune with reality – a per capita income of 2000 US $, a low-income country, huge trade deficit, incompetent farmer and manufacturing sector, India must choose wisely and act its situation (Sanjay Baru).
• India will have to make bitter concessions in its trade relation with the US. For example, one the goods that the US wants India to reduce tariff on or free trade is liquor as this is against the grain of India.
• Putin’s Alaska meet with the US has come as big relief for India, as India stands to benefit from normal relations between Russia and the US.
• Experts in India wish for more economic reforms (labour laws, ease of doing business etc.) which can help face the challenges in the trade domain.

India’s Tibet Policy：

       India’s Tibet policy has come under some deep shifts. This is happening because has no other options left to deal with China. Chinese ambassadors remark that “Tibet has become a burden for India” seems to be true, and India has begun to deal with this burden. In fact, although officially India has always acknowledged Tibet is a traditional part of China, the intellengsia and academia is building a case for India to contest China’s position because in their view – the source of India and China boundary question arises from China’s occupation of Tibet in 1950’s. While China may have had political relations, the idea that China had sovereignty over Tibet since ancient times is disputable and non-factual.

       India’s policy is also shaped by China’s attitude towards India’s core concern in the south Asian region. China’s expanding influence in India’s neighborhood, which reflects the colonial past doing is seen as unkind and insensitive to India’s interest. China’s argument that the Sino-Indian boundary dispute is a problem left over by history and is part of Asia’s colonial legacy falls flat when considering China’s foreign policy in Pakistan and Bangladesh. India’s partition is also a colonial legacy, hence if China cannot accept the boundary line drawn by British, then a celebrated relation with Pakistan and Bangladesh is not justified. Indian strategic thinkers have identified a major flaw in China’s foreign policy strategy and are aiming at exploiting this flaw. Indian historians are also developing a case for India never in its history having a powerful neighbour such as China, and therefore India’s neighbour is Tibet and not China.

       India has since its independence worked at building a territorial consciousness where everyone has come to believe that Tibet is and was always part of China. At present an effort is being made to improve the awareness about Tibet in India and its identity in distinction to that of the Chinese nation. China has seen India’s position on Tibet as sign of its weakness, but in India, its position on Tibet was aimed at having peace along the northern boundary. With consistent boundary issues arising between India and China, the cause of Tibet has become the center of gravity. The intensity with which India pursues this new shift in India’s Tibet policy depends on China. This is similar to India’s position on QUAD, where Indian officials have made it clear to their Chinese counterpart that – what happens with QUAD depends on China.

 This is the only option India has or it will lose control of its Himalayan region where China’s influence has grown rapidly. Without dealing with Tibet issue India’s position vis a vis China is very weak. The approval of the West is just a happy coincidence, with India appearing to contest China’s rise in Asia. While India seeks a multipolar Asia, China does not – India’s foreign minister Jaishankar mentioned this during Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit to India (New Delhi) on 18 August.

       Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Tianjin (PRC)

• The main issue that will be discussed between India and China will be – according to a secret report submitted by the RAW to national security advisor to the Prime Minister is that recently India has intercepted certain key communication between officials in China and concluded that China is going to conduct multiple nuclear tests and is doing ground work in this regard.
• According to experts in India, China is opposed to any arms control agreement unless both Russia and the US have the same nuclear stockpile. China’s nuclear stockpile is small compared with the US and Russia.
• India’s intelligence has discovered that China is fast forwarding its nuclear weapons buildup programme.
• It is suspected that China’s peace overtures surround this intelligence report. India’s passing of this information to the west will invite heavy sanctions and monitoring of Chinese program. This is unwanted, as China is still recovering from the setback fallowing the covid years.
• There is an element of mutual vulnerability now present in India and China relations. According to India’s top business man, India is now fighting for a new kind of freedom – digital, military technology, trade – because India depends on 90% of semiconductors from abroad and 80% of its oil. These make India vulnerable to international politics. According to ORF director (think tank in New Delhi) India cannot become a ten trillion-dollar economy without China’s cooperation. According to Bhadra Kumar (former ambassador), India is misreading China as conflict with India – a large market and growing economy – is simply not in the national interest of China.
• All indicators suggest that after a gap of few years India and China may finally come close to normalizing their relations, yet the fear that challenges to the relations will persist and test India’s foreign policy of multi-alignment.
• The fundamental mood in India is to find way for China to support India’s national development amidst geo-political turmoil and military security. India’s economy is now central for India and as important as sovereignty related issues. During Wang Yi’s visit, for example, China has agreed to ease its curb on rare earth minerals.