India’s Strategic Perspective on Venezuela & Iran –
Indian government has taken a very cautionary approach towards the situation in Venezuela following the arrest its President by the United States. There has been no important position taken on this issue by the government officially accept stating that restrain and dialogue must be followed. This stand has come under criticism by many strategic experts in India.
- Some experts in India believe the US decision to violate Venezuela’s sovereignty and arrest its President and his wife on 02-03 January is a complex decision. Foremostly, it is an attempt by the US administration under Trump to resume a leading role in the drug trade in South America where Venezuela acts as the hub of all major drug transactions. President Maduro had taken over the drug trade which has been traditionally under the direct supervision of the DAE and CIA of the US and unlike the former President of Venezuela who although a socialist did not interfere with the drug trade and distribute the drug money to all in the system. President Maduro had stopped paying people within the system and had made many unhappy within the drug cartel. During his arrest, all of his body guards were purchased by the US intelligence and were also taken to the US. The body guard’s family were already relocated to the US before the military action.
- There are others who believe that the US wanted to regain control over Venezuelan oil infrastructure were the US had previously invested heavily and build refineries in the US to refine the crude oil from Venezuela. In his reply to if the objective was China, President Trump answered that the US will sell the oil to others (China), indicating that the US does not want extra-regional players in the US backyard.
- Indian experts believe, Venezuelan oil only constitutes only 5% of all China’s oil imports and hence this will not be major loss for China which has invested in Venezuela and has long term debt of oil contracts with Venezuela. Much of China’s oil is sourced from Iran (nearly 25 %). China also imports from Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Quatar, and Malaysia. Hence Venezuela’s oil is not a major factor in the US-China rivalry. Iran is important and experts believe a major attempt by the US to take control of the Iranian oil is underway and this project calls for regime change in Iran. President Trump has already mentioned that the US will intervene if Iran tries kill Iranian people who are protesting on Iranian street. Iranian government has officially acknowledged that it is part of the problem which has made people angry. It is very likely that major events will unfold in Iran in coming days. If Iran’s oil is controlled by the US, then the US will achieve some leverage against China which has a huge advantage in the rare earth exports. After Iran, the control over oil fields in Iraq, UAE and Saudi will bring a major challenge to Chinese dependence on oil imports for its economic well-being.
- Yet some believe that the recent events in Iran and Venezuela are occurring within the framework of G-2 (the US-China) and hence the US and China are jointly working to rearrange a new order. A high-level meeting between Chinese delegation and President Maduro just hours before the US military action is being interpreted as a tactical understanding between the US and China. The arrest itself is seen as negotiated surrender.
- For the US, drugs is foremost in its calculation in Latin American followed by its need for international trade in oil in dollar. Oil is not a top priority in South America, but it is leverage that the US needs against China.
- The situation in Iran is very serious and is likely to see a regime change and may be elimination of its religious leader. After Iran, the next likely target will be Pakistan which is a unstable country with nuclear weapons. There are many in India who believe that in May-June there will be a major armed conflict between India and Pakistan and the outcome of this conflict will break-up of Pakistan in four new nations.
- Conclusion: China’s reliance on development as strategy is being challenged and it may require China to take hard stand and use its military to arrest the strategic situation from turning unfavorable to it. Nations don’t need only development, they also need security, China may be forced to secure its interest which is now under consistent threat by the Trump administration.
