The in-person meeting between the US President Trump and China’s President and General Secretary Xi Jinping was not particularly interesting in its content, because much of the trade deal agreed to was negotiated in advance at Malaysia and elsewhere. In US official assessment the deal was – “a massive victory that safeguards U.S. economic strength and national security while putting American workers, farmers, and families first”.
The US has categorized this agreement as a – historical agreement – where in China has committed to the following;
- Halt the flow of precursors used to make fentanyl into the United States.
- Effectively eliminate China’s current and proposed export controls [announced on October 9, 2025] on rare earth elements and other critical minerals.
- End Chinese retaliation against U.S. semiconductor manufacturers and other major U.S. companies.
- Open China’s market to U.S. soybeans and other agricultural exports [announced since March 4, 2025].
- China will take appropriate measures to ensure the resumption of trade from Nexperia’s facilities in China, allowing production of critical legacy chips to flow to the rest of the world.
- China will remove measures it took in retaliation for the U.S.’s announcement of a Section 301 investigation on China’s Targeting the Maritime, Logistics, and Shipbuilding Sectors for Dominance, and remove sanctions imposed on various shipping entities.
- China will further extend the expiration of its market-based tariff exclusion process for imports from the United States and exclusions will remain valid until December 31, 2026.
- China will terminate its various investigations targeting U.S. companies in the semiconductor supply chain, including its antitrust, anti-monopoly, and anti-dumping investigations.
The Trump administration has also made some commitments, but such commitments are meant to give China a relief for at the most – a year time. The US commitment is as following;
1.The United States will lower the tariffs on Chinese imports imposed to curb fentanyl flows by removing 10 percentage points of the cumulative rate, effective November 10, 2025, and will maintain its suspension of heightened reciprocal tariffs on Chinese imports until November 10, 2026. (The current 10% reciprocal tariff will remain in effect during this suspension period.)
2. The United States will further extend the expiration of certain Section 301 tariff exclusions, currently due to expire on November 29, 2025, until November 10, 2026.
3. The United States will suspend for one year, starting on November 10, 2025, the implementation of the interim final rule titled Expansion of End-User Controls to Cover Affiliates of Certain Listed Entities.
4.The United States will suspend for one year, starting on November 10, 2025, implementation of the responsive actions taken pursuant to the Section 301 investigation on China’s Targeting the Maritime, Logistics, and Shipbuilding Sectors for Dominance. In the meantime, the United States will negotiate with China pursuant to Section 301 while continuing its historic cooperation with the Republic of Korea and Japan on revitalizing American shipbuilding.
Yet, there are contradictions in what China and the US are claiming about the deal.
- The issuing of general licences was not mentioned in the statement from China’s commerce ministry.
- China’s commerce ministry said in its statement that the controls would be suspended for one year.
- China’s commerce ministry said both sides had reached a consensus on agricultural purchases, but gave no details.
In sum, while the US officials claims the deal to be a victory for itself, China has not committed to anything in particular as mentioned by the US. There was, in fact, no deal, if there was a deal then there would have been a press conference.
Indian Perspective:
China will purchase at least 12 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. soybeans during the last two months of 2025 and also purchase at least 25 MMT of U.S. soybeans in each of 2026, 2027, and 2028. Additionally, China will resume purchases of U.S. sorghum and hardwood and softwood logs.
China cannot fulfill its obligation to buy soyabean from the US. China has already signed a five-year agreement to buy Soyabean from Brazil (80 MMT/Year), two-year agreement with Argentina (26 MMT/year). The total requirement of China is only 120 MMT/year – 100 MMT for animal feed, 20 MMT for industry, oil and general consumption. China also buys soyabean from other countries (South Africa).
On Rare-Earth minerals, China is watching the US behaviour and will decide accordingly in the future. China is willingly to give all the rare earth minerals to India, but with a condition that it will not be re-routed to the US. India can sell to Europe but not the US.
China’s political power struggle within the CCP and its economy is looking very grim. The Chinese Defense Minister not still part of the Central Military Commission, and it is rumored that President Xi’s wife is a hostage [A doubtful analysis]. Yet President Xi is not going take things lying down and will assert themselves. Until there was economic prosperity, it was ok in China to ignore the importance rule of law, constitution and other factors that make a modern nation but with economic growth slowing down, China is going to face major challenges and its social order may be called into question. The IMF say China’s economy is registering 4.8% growth, Indian experts wonder if even 0.8% growth is happening in China.
Conclusion:
Tariff wars and other major tensions (Wars in Middle East and Russia-Ukraine) that are now underway are not limited the US and China or any other major powers, but with a world order that is in transition and now passing through an end phase of history called “period of sovereignty” which began in Europe in mid – 17th century. Economic globalization has found its limits within the sovereignty framework and political globalization has not even started. The Tariff wars are but a reminder that boundaries are not useful anymore and the world needs to find another framework. China has already formulated post-sovereign frameworks like GSI, GCI, GGI – all these frameworks are in its early stage of development and are mostly post-sovereign framework – a framework for the future.
As far as the trade deal between China and the US is concerned, Indian experts believe “there is no deal”, its all-hog wash. China has committed to “nothing, and aims to stabilize the relation for its own benefit even if it is for a period of one year. China is taking the US administration for a ride and this process will continue for some time. Each time the length of the ride will be shorter than before. Finally, when the US administration realizes it is not able to achieve to achieve what it aimed for, it is likely will likely use force to settle the matter. A clash between the US and China which is focused on its national development is – inevitable.
