After hosting Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on 02 February and before hosting Indian Prime Minister Narender Modi on 12-13 February, newly elected President Trump hosted Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on 07 February. The military alliance between the US and Japan is perhaps the most consequential geo-political alliance in the world – the foundation upon which the global security architecture stands. At the joint press conference, Mr. Trump stated in his opening remarks, “The military cooperation between the United States and Japan is one of our closest security partnerships, and it’s one of the closest we have anywhere in the world.” Japan hosts the largest number of US military troops outside the US anywhere in the world and considers the US-Japan Security Treaty the backbone of Japan’s postwar political history.
This military alliance is the continuation of the first ever military-pact concluded on equal terms between a western and non-western nation – the Anglo-Japanese Alliance (1902-1923). After the second World War, when Britain handed over its global imperial power to the US, a US-Japan alliance was a necessary condition for the US to project its military power globally. However, the logic of the Anglo-Japanese alliance differs from that of the US-Japan alliance. For Britain, an alliance with Japan allowed it to concentrate its forces in the Atlantic as against in defense of its colonies in Asia, however, for the US, Japan allows its navy to project power in the Pacific, including fielding of nuclear weapons. With the US becoming a Pacific power in 1898, the Anglo-Japanese alliance was seen as hurdle and its termination a pre-condition for the US to participate at the Washinton Naval conference (1921-1922).
Having successfully decimated Japan’s quest for securing a rightful place for the ‘yellow race’ within the world order, the US along with its military alliance in the Atlantic theater -NATO- assumed command of the maritime world order. Japan’s national security was guaranteed by the US along with others in the Pacific theater with conditions attached which now seems outdated from a Japanese national security perspective. From Japan’s perspective the US-Japan alliance is based on asymmetry and not the one between ‘equal-nations’. In fact, the original US-Japan Security Treaty signed on 08 September, 1951was forced upon Japan as a condition for ending the US -led military occupation of Japan and did not oblige the US to defend Japan.
The concept of ‘extended deterrence’ put in place in defense of Japan is now dysfunctional under conditions of nuclear threat from China and North Korea – with whom it shares a disturbing past – becoming more certain. With the US decision to not put military boots on the ground in Ukraine, an intense public debate unfolds in Japan with regard to either abandonment or entrapment within US-Japan alliance. Prior to assuming his office, in an article to the Hudson Institute on September 25, 2024, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stated, “The geopolitical crisis surrounding our country has risen to the point where war could break out at any moment…. the creation of an Asian version of NATO is essential to deter China by its Western allies”.
Although economic relations dominate, with Trump prioritizing MAGA project seeking investments, slashing trade deficits and more jobs for Americans, the US role as a global military security provider is critical to US primacy in world affairs. Doubts over the efficacy of ‘extended deterrence’ provided by the US is now forcing Japan to increase its defense spending, reinterpret the Constitution to allow for the exercise of the right of collective self-defense, review the command and control structure of the Self-Defense Forces and US forces in Japan, and enact “National Security Legislation” by revising its constitution. Along with internal balancing, according to Prime Minister Ishiba, “to ensure deterrence against the nuclear alliance of China, Russia, and North Korea, an Asian version of NATO must specifically consider America’s sharing of nuclear weapons or the introduction of nuclear weapons into the region”. In the joint leaders’ statement released following Prime Minister Ishiba’s visit, the US underscored its unwavering commitment to the defense of Japan, using its full range of capabilities, including nuclear capabilities and reaffirmed that Article V of the U.S.-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security applies to the Senkaku Islands.
Furthermore, to bolster deterrence, an upgradation of security architecture with US-Japan alliance at its core is being built around a hub-and-spoke system or as Biden administration called it – a lattice-like strategic architecture. The Trump administration will continue Biden’s approach connected Tokyo with other allies in trilateral formats and other groupings – Japan-Australia-India-U.S. (Quad), Japan-U.S.-Republic of Korea (ROK), Japan-U.S.-Australia, and Japan-U.S.-Philippines. Yet, Japan’s leadership remains insecure and doubtful of the US role in times of crisis and is on a mission to first bring US-Japan alliance at par with the US-UK alliance, and then revise the Japan-US Security Treaty into a treaty between “ordinary countries.” Japan’s insecurity is driving it towards fending for itself in times of crisis with its own military strategy. This inevitably calls for Japan to possess its own nuclear arsenal as UK does within US-UK alliance.
Dr Sundaram Rajasimman lectures at Sichuan International Studies University, Chongqing, PRC.
